Russian presidential elections begins again. “Navalny's widow is the last face of hope”
From March 15th-17th, Russia's presidential election will take place. What does professor and Russia specialist Michael Kemper expect from the election? “The only hope is Putin's death.”
“All opposition candidates have been expelled, eliminated, or are dead. So the chances of something surprising happening in this Russian presidential election are very small,” predicts Professor of East European Studies Michael Kemper.
Opposition candidate Yekaterina Doentsova, who fought for a “human Russia,” was barred from running because of alleged flaws in her candidacy. Boris Nadezhdin, popular among young people, advocated peace in the Ukraine war. He was also disqualified, after obtaining 300,000 signatures, while only 100,000 signatures are required for candidacy.
“The only opposition that President Vladimir Putin still tolerates is ‘systemic opposition.’ This consists of small groups, such as the old, communist party and the radical right, who usually vote with Putin’s ruling party.” Kemper estimates that the Putin-administered electoral commission will choose for itself what percentage of the votes to allocate to the candidates of those parties once the polling stations are closed.
This is how the Russian leader has thinned out the political opposition in recent years. “There are not even that many political prisoners in Russia. But dissidents get a termination notice from their employer, their car is suddenly not at their door, or they are picked up for “questioning.” Such threats stick with you for the rest of your life.
As such, the teacher of the subject “Putin's Russia” cannot say whether Putin will regain around 76 percent of the vote as he did in 2018. The incumbent president, now in power for more than 20 years, could possibly decide to be even more blatantly “elected” this election, Kemper said.
Navalny
The death of opposition leader Aleksey Navalny, imprisoned by the Russian regime, was very convenient for Putin in this regard so close to the election, Kemper believes. “The opposition was deprived of a leader who could still bring hope. He could even, until his deportation to a penal camp in the Arctic Circle, still occasionally communicate with the outside world.”
But the reactions to Navalny's death, demanded by Putin, must have reassured the incumbent, according to Kemper. “Navalny's death did not lead to any major riots or demonstrations in Russia. Thus, Putin will also not have to fear overly violent protests during the presidential election.”
Nalvany’s widow Yulia Navalnaya did call on Russians to gather in front of polling stations in protest. But Kemper doesn’t expect too much from those actions either. The UvA researcher argues that in more remote cities like Irkutsk in Siberia or large cities like Moscow there are simply too many polling stations to keep people from doing so. “There will probably be some people gathering. But I think maybe the secret police will be able to arrive at such demonstrations before the TV cameras that want to film the protests. So then, in relative secrecy, the protesters will be arrested before we see or hear anything about them.”
From democracy to dictatorship
Kemper already saw a change in presidential elections starting in 2012. That year, protests broke out after the results, with former Soviet leader Michael Gorbachev, among others, questioning the legitimacy of Putin’s power. “The National Guard, a police force directly under Putin's command, was set up and Navalny was imprisoned for the first time.”
Instead of alternating the presidency as usual with former Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev, Putin introduced a constitutional amendment in 2020 that extended the term of his possible presidency to 2036. “He has transformed Russia from a reasonable democracy to a complete dictatorship. He has sealed his power one hundred percent.”
The circle of confidants has become smaller and smaller. None of them, according to Kemper, can take power from Putin anymore. “And also the danger of former confidant Prigozhin (the Russian mercenary boss who rebelled against Putin, ed.) was eliminated when he died in a plane crash. That ignores the question of whether we should have seen him as a friendly alternative,” Kemper smiles.
War and hope
The invasion of Ukraine will also no longer play a major role in the election, Kemper predicts. Despite major protests at the beginning of the war, most Russians have either fled and stayed away or fled and returned, making them “vulnerable to reprisals.”
In addition, the Russian economy is thriving despite sanctions imposed by the West. “Russia now has a war economy in which the state is investing heavily.” The banking sector, working under the Kremlin, is putting all its reserves into weapons factories. Sanctions are being circumvented via Turkey, Georgia, or Central Asia, and Russians welcome growing employment.
Whether the opinion polls stating that Putin's support has increased are true is not independently verifiable. But, Kemper expects, the war economy will eventually create significant problems for Putin. “Reserves are running out and that bubble could well burst.”
The only immediate hope Kemper sees for the Russian opposition is Putin’s death. “Or he will choose someone from his own clique who can succeed him over time, and will protect his criminal organizations.” Still, Kemper praises opposition leaders who now operate mainly from abroad, such as chess grandmaster Garri Kasparov and Navalny’s widow. “They are not going to be able to unite the opposition in Russia. But they are still the last face of hope.”
